See, that’s what the app is perfect for.

Predictable Insights provides a unique, crowdsourced perspective at the intersection of politics and prediction markets. Each edition includes an update on the politics driving the week that was as well as highlights from PredictIt’s market analysts.

It’s Friday and these are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on this week. Former President Donald Trump is one of, if not the most, important single figures that will impact this year’s midterm elections. The dynamic of his role within the Republican Party will be on display in just a few weeks as primary election season really heats up.

First up are the primaries in Ohio and Indiana on May 3, and this week’s newsletter takes a deep dive into Ohio’s Republican primary, which has turned extremely contentious. Adding to the drama, Trump is rumored to be finally making his endorsement in the Senate race this weekend. Then we zoom out to look at Trump’s impact on the Republican Party and national politics overall ahead of November, and what the implications are for the next presidential race.

Finally, we’re highlighting another one of our podcast partners this week: The Prediction Trade. PredictIt Co-Founder and CEO John Phillips joined TPT this week to kick off primary season with some insights into the trends among traders, and give a peak behind the scenes at your favorite prediction market platform.

We’ve also just launched three new markets tracking who will be New York’s next lieutenant governor; who will win the Republican nomination in Indiana’s 9th Congressional District and what will be the President Joe Biden’s job approval rating on RealClearPolitics on April 22.

*Market prices updated as of 6 a.m. EDT on Friday, April 15.

This Week in the Markets

JD Vance speaking with attendees at the 2021 Southwest Regional Conference in Phoenix, Arizona. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

Zoom In: Will a Trump Endorsement in Ohio Make a Difference?

The eyes of the nation will be on Ohio and Indiana on May 3 as the Midwestern states kick off primary election season for the 2022 midterms and set the tone for the political season ahead. November’s elections will determine which party controls power in Congress, and could drastically shift policy if power in either chamber shifts to the Republicans, who would likely block a vast majority of President Joe Biden’s legislative priorities.

Ohio’s US Senate race, in particular, is worth a deeper look. Candidates are running to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) in a state that former President Donald Trump won by eight points in 2020 and is rated as “lean Republican” in the general election by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. But a crowded and combative primary field for Republicans could prove damaging in the general election. We say this a lot, but it can’t be stated strongly enough – with a 50-50 Senate and majority control on the line, every single Senate race matters this year.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?

Given Trump’s continued popularity in the state – with 80% favorability among Republicans – an endorsement of any of the Republican candidates could give them the push to make it over the finish line. But absent that endorsement so far, candidates have been attempting to prove their Trump bona fides to voters anyway. Five Republicans are running in the primary: businessman Mike Gibbons, former state Treasurer Josh Mandel, “Hillbilly Elegy” author and businessman JD Vance, former state GOP Chairwoman Jane Timken and state Sen. Matt Dolan. Currently, no one is polling above 30% with a large segment of voters still undecided.

Gibbons and Mandel have so far been leading the pack in most polls. The Real Clear Politics average gives Gibbons 20% and Mandel 18.7%. Vance is in third place with 11%, but that could soon change as rumors surfaced Thursday that Trump is planning to endorse Vance at a rally in Ohio this weekend. We will soon have our answer as to whether Trump can play “kingmaker” in Ohio by pulling Vance into the lead.

RealClearPolitics Graphic: The polling average in the Ohio GOP Senate primary shows Gibbons leading Mandel by 20% to 18.7% and Vance in third place with 11%.

Timken, who was hand-picked by Trump for her previous role as the GOP party chair in the state, touts that as proof of a de facto endorsement. She has also hired two of Trump’s top political allies for key positions in her campaign and is reportedly the reason Trump has hesitated in announcing an endorsement. On the opposite end of the Trump-spectrum is Dolan. He is the only Republican candidate who is not courting an endorsement from the former president, and also questions Trump’s messaging surrounding his loss in the 2020 presidential election. Of the top-five candidates, Dolan is also polling the lowest in the RealClearPolitics average.

Showing just how contentious this primary has become, the top-two polling candidates — Gibbons and Mandel — had an exchange during a debate last Friday that for moments looked like it may come to blows.

According to reports, Mandel stood up as Gibbons told him “you may not understand this” because “you’ve never been in the private sector your entire life.” At which point, Mandel, a Marine Corps veteran stood up and got in Gibbons’ face. “Two tours in Iraq, don’t tell me I haven’t worked,” Mandel could be heard saying. Vance, also a Marine Corps veteran, used the exchange as an opportunity to take aim at Mandel during the debate, saying: “I think the way you used the US Marine Corps, Josh, is disgraceful,” and called him a “joke.”

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Whom will Trump endorse in the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?

On the Democrat’s side, the strong favorite to win is Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH), who has recently come under fire from his party for his anti-China messaging in a $3.3 million ad campaign appealing to the state’s White working-class and rural voters. For a Democrat to win Ohio this year, large numbers of independents and Republicans would need to find the GOP candidate unacceptable.

We will learn two important things from Ohio this year: whether Trump carries the weight he likes to think he does among Midwestern Republican voters, and if his candidate wins on May 3, Ohio will turn into a test of Trump’s popularity and messaging against a Democrat running on a moderate message.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the 2022 US Senate election in Ohio?

Wisdom of the Crowd

As you’d expect, the news of the looming Trump endorsement has resulted in a spike in trade volume in the market tracking Ohio’s Republican nominee for Senate. Vance’s contract has been trending up for about a month now, reaching highs this week just below 50¢ during trading. Immediately following the breaking news of the rumored endorsement, Vance’s contract shot to a high of 70¢ before dropping to a low of 33¢ an hour later. As of Thursday afternoon, traders were giving Vance a solid lead with 41¢ — compared to Gibbons with 28¢ and Mandel rounding out the top three with 27¢ – but still not pushing him above 50% odds.

Gibbons and Mandel have also held the first and second-place spots at times over the last three months. A price drop in the Mandel contract earlier this week, bringing the candidate to his lowest point, lines up with unfavorable reporting from his interaction with Gibbons at the debate. There was also a massive spike this week – from 38¢ to 80¢ — in the market asking who Trump would endorse in the race.

For Democrats, it’s always been Ryan, who has stayed in the high 90s for the life of the market, and hit 99¢ on Thursday.

A Macro View of Trump’s Power

Former President Donald Trump speaking with supporters in Phoenix, Arizona. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

Zoom Out: We Will Soon Know the Power of the Trump Endorsement

Zooming out now from Ohio to take a broader look at the upcoming primary races starting in May, the biggest unknown nationwide is the power of the Trump endorsement and whether his seal of approval will make a candidate toxic in general elections. We will start to learn the answer in the coming weeks as Republican Senate candidates with his support face tough primaries in early voting states: Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania… and likely a formal endorsement in Ohio this weekend.

These races, along with several gubernatorial and down-ballot races across the country, will help shape the narrative of the former president’s influence within the Republican Party. According to Morning Consult, 8 in 10 Republican voters in the key battleground states of Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania favor Trump.

Morning Consult Poll: Roughly four in five Republican voters in the early primary states of Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania hold favorable opinions about the former president, according to Morning Consult surveys conducted in March.

Even with his enduring support among Republicans, not all of Trump’s hand-picked candidates are likely to win – either in their primaries or in some cases the general election — and that’s historically normal for any former president. Former Republican campaign official and strategist Doug Heye describes a double-standard when it comes to expectations about Trump endorsements:

“We judge him very differently from every other president, for obvious reasons, but a lot of the same fundamentals apply,” said Heye. “Because it’s Donald Trump, we’re not allowed to acknowledge that some of this is normal politics.”

It may be normal politics, but the fate of Trump’s endorsees could have YUGEE!!! implications (see what we did there?) on the presidential primaries that are looming just around the corner. Should Trump secure some key wins it might give him the motivation he’s seeking to make another run at the White House. So, let’s look at the numbers from these key states.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Whom and how well will Trump endorsees fair in their Senate primaries and beyond?

In all four of these states, Trump’s favorability with Republican voters far outweighs his unfavorability. In fact, his standing has improved in North Carolina, where he endorsed Rep. Ted Budd (R-NC) for the state’s open Senate seat, and in Pennsylvania, where he endorsed television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz for Senate. In Ohio, the former president’s favorability is roughly the same as when he left the White House, and he’s seen only a modest decline in popularity in Georgia, where he’s endorsed candidates for governor, Senate and secretary of state.

Compared with other national leaders, Trump ranks highest among Republican voters in all four states, followed by former Vice President Mike Pence, who has broken from Trump on several occasions since the two left office. Other GOP figures included in the survey were Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who is most polarizing among the electorate; and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). Morning Consult notes that Trump’s popularity in those states roughly matches his standing nationwide.

“It’s one thing to say, ‘Trump is popular,’ and quite another to say, ‘voters will do whatever they are told every time,’” said Gail Gitcho, who worked on Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R-UT) 2012 presidential campaign.

During his presidency, Trump’s success rate in battleground primary endorsements was 86%, according to Ballotpedia. Since leaving the White House, though, results have been mixed, but what’s not under question is that he still plays a major role in the GOP nationwide. The majority (57%) say Trump should continue to play a “major role” in the GOP, while 20% say he should play a minor role and just 16% who say he should play no role at all. About 57% of Republicans also said they would vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 presidential primary – more than four times the next most popular candidate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ®.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?

Wisdom of the Crowd

Trump’s grip on the 2024 Republican presidential nomination remains as strong as ever as he continues to lead DeSantis and the field at 39¢. The Florida governor remains the only other candidate contract in double digits at 29¢. And while both contracts have remained steady over the past month, one thing to consider going forward is whether or not Trump will endorse DeSantis in his bid to be re-elected governor.

Since leaving Washington last year, Trump has issued a long, if not sporadic, list of endorsements that includes other prospective presidential hopefuls such as South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem ® and Sens. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Tim Scott (R-SC). But absent from that list so far is DeSantis, and it’s unclear exactly why Trump hasn’t issued an endorsement in his adopted home state’s gubernatorial race. Speculation has swirled for months that the once-close relationship between Trump and DeSantis has grown rocky amid the latter’s rise within conservative political circles and chatter that he may be eyeing the White House in 2024.

If Trump were to endorse DeSantis between now and the Sunshine State primaries in four months, how the markets react could be a key indicator of Trump’s strength with a view toward 2024.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Will Trump’s influence help or hurt Republicans in Georgia?

Back to the Senate markets and the key battlegrounds. Herschel Walker, Trump’s preferred candidate in Georgia’s GOP Senate primary, and Budd are both sitting pretty in their respective GOP primary markets. The former holds a 92¢ lead over second place, while the latter has jumped out to a 87¢ to 13¢ lead over former North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory ®. But it’s a different story in Pennsylvania, where Oz has failed to full capitalize on the former president’s endorsement. Oz’s contract hasn’t been able to improve on the 6¢ difference in price achieved on April 9, and has now drifted to an 11¢ marginal deficit against the market favorite, former hedge fund CEO David McCormick, 55¢ to 44¢.

What remains consistent though is trader belief that Republicans are favorites to win all three races: 60¢ to 43¢ in Pennsylvania, 65¢ to 36¢ in Georgia and 82¢ to 17¢ in North Carolina. Wins in all three states could be key to Republicans winning control of the Senate in November.

Podcast Spotlight: The Prediction Trade with John Phillips

The Prediction Trade featuring PredictIt Co-Founder and CEO John Aristotle Phillips.

The Prediction Trade Featuring PredictIt Co-Founder and CEO John Aristotle Phillips

PredictIt Co-Founder and CEO John Phillips was a guest on this week’s episode of The Prediction Trade podcast hosted by Luckbox Magazine and Tastytrade. John talks about how PredictIt got its start and some trends we’ve seen developing amongst the platform’s traders:

“[PredictIt traders] are by no means hyper-partisans all of them. Some of them are, some of them are very involved and passionate about politics, but many of them are more interested in sharpening and honing their forecasting skills.”

Digging into the markets, John gave some insights into how markets are decided and how researchers use the market data to study predictive behavior.

Listen to the full interview.

ICYMI

Former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally. Photo: The Epoch Times / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

PredictIt markets making the news this week include:

• Cook Political Report: “According to the PredictIt betting odds, there is an 84% chance that Republicans will capture the House in November, a 77% chance that the GOP wins a Senate majority, and a 72% chance that Republicans end up controlling both.”
• Florida Politics: “Both Gov. Ron DeSantis ® and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) have commanding leads over Democratic counterparts on the PredictIt platform. These advantages have expanded over time and show no immediate indication of reversal.”

Also mentioned in: The Lines and Semana.

Audible Insights

Star Spangled Gamblers: Marine Le Pen and Sarah Palin Comebacks + Hookers and Blow in the House GOP

On this week’s podcast: Marine Le Pen is currently scaring Emanuel Macron shitless. Zut alors! Can she really win? Sara Palin just hopped into a 40-man race for Alaska’s House seat. But do Alaskans really want to buy tickets to this sequel? And more…

Here’s a taste of what you’ll hear this week:

“In the early polls we’ve seen, you have Al Gross the independent doing reasonably well, but basically what that tells me is, if I’m correct that Palin either will flame out or just end up underperforming, you have to figure at least one to two Republicans in this kind of a cycle are going to start polling reasonably well. So I think my immediate strategy, in addition to shorting Palin is to do some research and figure out who are the three to five Republicans who might end up surging and buy lottos on them.”

Election Profit Makers: On a Scale From 9 to 10 

Jon finally bets against Madison Cawthorn. David listens to Herschel Walker’s wisdom.

Here’s a taste of what you’ll hear this week:

“She’s jumping in very late, and I’m not feeling Palin running. Of course, maybe she is gonna win, but I have gone in and bought a bunch of ‘no’ shares on Palin. It’s not a psychological hedge in any way, ya know, it’s maybe a wish bet, but I actually believe that she shouldn’t be trading that high.”

Recently Launched Markets

Obama hands over presidency to Trump at 58th Presidential Inauguration. Photo: US Air Force Staff Sargent Marianique Santos / Public Domain.

New markets launched this week include how many federal judges will be confirmed by May 27; if former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) will run for a New York statewide executive office in 2022; which party will win the 2022 New York gubernatorial election; how many votes to confirm Michelle Childs to the DC Circuit Court of Appeals by June 25; which of these 10 Asia-Pacific leaders will leave office next; who will win the 2022 Hawaii Democratic gubernatorial nomination; if South Dakota Attorney General Jason Ravnsborg will be convicted or resign; who will win the 2022 Iowa Democratic Senate nomination; if Boris Johnson will remain British prime minister through August and which party will lead in FiveThirtyEight Congressional generic ballot polling for April 20.

We also have weekly recurring markets on President Joe Biden’s job approval rating on RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight.

Finally, we are always crowdsourcing new market ideas from traders. Send ideas to markets@predictit.org and be sure to include a legitimate resolution source.

Thanks for following the markets!

Team @PredictIt